Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jason Witt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jason Witt threatens submissions; Bryan Barberena has lost 30% of fights by sub.
- Jason Witt has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bryan BarberenaL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23L
vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24 Jason WittL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Takashi Sato · Jun 20W
SUBvs Cole Williams · Oct 20L
KOvs Matthew Semelsberger · Mar 21L
KOvs Josh Quinlan · Aug 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bryan BarberenaMetricJason Witt
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.76Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap-0.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Bryan BarberenaJason Witt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bryan Barberena(10 fights)Jason Witt(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +59.2|Blue -59.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.8|Blue -2.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +182.0|Blue -182.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Bryan BarberenaTargetJason Witt
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jason Witt edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:30Control
Round 2Jason Witt edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:31
Knockdowns0
11Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:19Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Bryan Barberena edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control0:16
14Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
1:49Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
