Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paddy Pimblett enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Paddy Pimblett threatens submissions; Justin Gaethje has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Justin Gaethje has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin GaethjeW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26 Paddy PimblettW5 streak
oldest →W
vs Jared Gordon · Dec 22W
vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23W
SUBvs King Green · Jul 24W
KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25W
SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin GaethjeMetricPaddy Pimblett
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.57Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap+1.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Justin GaethjePaddy Pimblett
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Gaethje(10 fights)Paddy Pimblett(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Justin GaethjeTargetPaddy Pimblett
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control1:01
Knockdowns1
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns2
Control2:23
Knockdowns1
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Paddy Pimblett edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
41Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns1
Control1:26
35Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control1:05
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:48Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
