Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Morono enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Semelsberger (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex MoronoL4 streak
oldest →L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24L
KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25L
vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26 Matthew SemelsbergerL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Jake Matthews · Dec 22L
vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23L
KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23L
vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24L
KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex MoronoMetricMatthew Semelsberger
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.02evenly matched on net striking-0.47
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alex MoronoMatthew Semelsberger
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Morono(10 fights)Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -9.8|Blue +9.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alex MoronoTargetMatthew Semelsberger
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Matthew Semelsberger rounds
Round 1Alex Morono edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
Round 2Alex Morono edged it
Sig. strikes47
Takedowns0
Control0:05
26Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:43Control
Round 3Matthew Semelsberger edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:19
Knockdowns0
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:34Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
