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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Henry Cejudo won · S-DEC R5

Elo1491

Elo1472

Demetrious JohnsonvsHenry CejudoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · Saturday, August 4, 2018Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Henry Cejudo won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDemetrious Johnson: WrestlervsHenry Cejudo: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Demetrious Johnson wins(81.2%)

Actual result: Henry Cejudo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demetrious Johnson at -470 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Demetrious Johnson enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Demetrious Johnson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Demetrious Johnson

Red Corner

Henry Cejudo

Blue Corner

-470

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+375

(21%)

1491

Elo

1472

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demetrious JohnsonW5 streak

oldest →

vs John Dodson · Sep 15

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16

vs Tim Elliott · Dec 16

SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17

SUBvs Ray Borg · Oct 17

latest

Henry CejudoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 23

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24

vs Song Yadong · Feb 25

vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demetrious JohnsonMetricHenry Cejudo

3.43

Strikes / min

3.83

1.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.84

67%

Strike defense

57%

3.35

TDs / 15 min

1.78

65%

Takedown defense

72%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77Δ 1.78 — meaningful gap-0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demetrious JohnsonHenry Cejudo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)Henry Cejudo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.1|Blue -19.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demetrious JohnsonTargetHenry Cejudo

By target zone

37% acc · 28%

Head

25% acc · 57%

90% acc · 23%

Body

72% acc · 35%

76% acc · 48%

Leg

67% acc · 8%

By position

58% acc · 90%

Distance

26% acc · 61%

88% acc · 9%

Clinch

77% acc · 33%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

60% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demetrious Johnson rounds

even

Henry Cejudo rounds

Round 1Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:29Control

Round 3Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:27

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 4Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:14Control

Round 5Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:09

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:45Control

Fight Stats

Totals

81 / 134

Sig Strikes

51 / 147

59.2%

Sig Str %

34.6%

121 / 174

Total Strikes

80 / 178

1 / 2

TDs

3 / 11

50%

TD %

35%

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

4:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Henry Cejudo	4 / 29	4 / 29	0 / 1
1	Demetrious Johnson	21 / 32	21 / 32	0 / 0
2	Henry Cejudo	11 / 33	19 / 42	1 / 2
2	Demetrious Johnson	15 / 29	30 / 44	0 / 1
3	Henry Cejudo	10 / 30	12 / 32	0 / 3
3	Demetrious Johnson	20 / 28	32 / 40	1 / 1
4	Demetrious Johnson	9 / 18	18 / 27	0 / 0
4	Henry Cejudo	9 / 19	22 / 32	1 / 1
5	Henry Cejudo	17 / 36	23 / 43	1 / 4
5	Demetrious Johnson	16 / 27	20 / 31	0 / 0

Demetrious Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Henry Cejudo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights16