Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Khamzat Chimaev threatens submissions; John Phillips has lost 60% of fights by sub.
- Khamzat Chimaev has 80pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors John Phillips (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Phillips
oldest →L
SUBvs Charles Byrd · Mar 18L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Nov 18L
vs Jack Marshman · Mar 19W
KOvs Alen Amedovski · Sep 19L
vs Junyong Park · Oct 20 Khamzat Chimaev
oldest →W
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Sep 22W
vs Kamaru Usman · Oct 23W
SUBvs Robert Whittaker · Oct 24W
vs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 25L
DECvs Sean Strickland · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John PhillipsMetricKhamzat Chimaev
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.31Δ 3.34 — meaningful gap+1.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
John PhillipsKhamzat Chimaev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Phillips(6 fights)Khamzat Chimaev(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -126.8|Blue +126.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
John PhillipsTargetKhamzat Chimaev
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Khamzat Chimaev edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
40Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:55Control
Round 2Khamzat Chimaev edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:59Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
