Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Moraga
oldest →L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17W
vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18 Dustin Ortiz
oldest →L
SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17W
KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17W
vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18W
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18L
vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John MoragaMetricDustin Ortiz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.77
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
John MoragaDustin Ortiz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Moraga(10 fights)Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +105.0|Blue -105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
John MoragaTargetDustin Ortiz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Dustin Ortiz edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:22Control
Round 2John Moraga edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control1:32
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:02Control
Round 3Dustin Ortiz edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:15
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:44Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
