← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mohammed Usman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1506

Elo1474

Mohammed UsmanvsJake CollierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Saturday, September 23, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mohammed Usman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMohammed Usman: Well-roundedvsJake Collier: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Mohammed Usman wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Mohammed Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mohammed Usman at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Collier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Mohammed Usman

Red Corner

Jake Collier

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1506

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mohammed Usman

oldest →

KOvs Zac Pauga · Aug 22

vs Junior Tafa · Apr 23

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 24

vs Thomas Petersen · Jul 24

vs Hamdy Abdelwahab · Jun 25

latest

Jake CollierL3 streak

oldest →

vs Carlos Felipe · Jun 21

SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22

vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22

KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22

vs Martin Buday · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mohammed UsmanMetricJake Collier

3.85

Strikes / min

5.80

4.27

Strikes absorbed / min

5.08

51%

Strike defense

50%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.71

66%

Takedown defense

67%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.42Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mohammed UsmanJake Collier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mohammed Usman(6 fights)Jake Collier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.5|Blue -32.5

Recent Form

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mohammed UsmanTargetJake Collier

By target zone

37% acc · 68%

Head

37% acc · 61%

77% acc · 32%

Body

88% acc · 25%

Leg

92% acc · 14%

By position

45% acc · 98%

Distance

47% acc · 92%

33% acc · 1%

Clinch

58% acc · 8%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mohammed Usman rounds

even

Jake Collier rounds

Round 1Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Mohammed Usman edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control3:07

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

85 / 191

Sig Strikes

87 / 183

45.3%

Sig Str %

47.3%

118 / 234

Total Strikes

100 / 198

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:07

Ctrl Time

0:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jake Collier	41 / 89	41 / 89	0 / 0	1
1	Mohammed Usman	32 / 72	34 / 74	0 / 1	0
2	Jake Collier	34 / 68	34 / 68	0 / 0	0
2	Mohammed Usman	36 / 85	37 / 87	0 / 0	0
3	Jake Collier	12 / 26	25 / 41	0 / 0	1
3	Mohammed Usman	17 / 34	47 / 73	1 / 2	0

Mohammed Usman

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights6

Jake Collier

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights14