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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jack Della Maddalena won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1506

Elo1467

Jack Della MaddalenavsDanny RobertsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Saturday, November 19, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jack Della Maddalena won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:24

Style matchupJack Della Maddalena: Pressure fightervsDanny Roberts: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Jack Della Maddalena wins(83.2%)

Actual result: Jack Della Maddalena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Della Maddalena at -700 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jack Della Maddalena is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Danny Roberts has lost 71% of fights by KO.
Jack Della Maddalena has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jack Della Maddalena (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Jack Della Maddalena

Red Corner

Danny Roberts

Blue Corner

-700

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+510

(16%)

1506

Elo

1467

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack Della MaddalenaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Holland · Sep 23

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 24

vs Belal Muhammad · May 25

vs Islam Makhachev · Nov 25

KOvs Carlos Prates · May 26

latest

Danny RobertsL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michel Pereira · May 19

KOvs Zelim Imadaev · Nov 19

vs Ramazan Emeev · Oct 21

vs Francisco Trinaldo · May 22

KOvs Jonny Parsons · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack Della MaddalenaMetricDanny Roberts

5.32

Strikes / min

3.18

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

61%

Strike defense

50%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

0.24

64%

Takedown defense

57%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.08Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap-0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack Della MaddalenaDanny Roberts

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Della Maddalena(10 fights)Danny Roberts(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.4|Blue -38.4

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack Della MaddalenaTargetDanny Roberts

By target zone

56% acc · 70%

Head

7% acc · 40%

56% acc · 27%

Body

50% acc · 20%

33% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 40%

By position

54% acc · 82%

Distance

13% acc · 80%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

50% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Della Maddalena rounds

even

Danny Roberts rounds

Round 1Jack Della Maddalena edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:34

Knockdowns2

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 60

Sig Strikes

5 / 33

55%

Sig Str %

15%

41 / 68

Total Strikes

5 / 33

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Danny Roberts	5 / 33	5 / 33	0 / 1	0
1	Jack Della Maddalena	33 / 60	41 / 68	0 / 0	0

Jack Della Maddalena

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Danny Roberts

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14