Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Justin Gaethje has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Tony Ferguson has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24 Justin GaethjeW3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26W
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricJustin Gaethje
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.54Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tony FergusonJustin Gaethje
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -55.5|Blue +55.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -2.3|Blue +2.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tony FergusonTargetJustin Gaethje
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tony Ferguson edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control0:00
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Tony Ferguson edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Tony Ferguson edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
