Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Pineda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Antonio Carvalho has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Antonio Carvalho has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Antonio Carvalho
oldest →L
vs Felipe Arantes · Jan 12W
vs Rodrigo Damm · Nov 12L
KOvs Darren Elkins · Mar 13 Daniel PinedaL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20W
SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23L
vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24L
vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Antonio CarvalhoMetricDaniel Pineda
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.59evenly matched on net striking-0.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Antonio CarvalhoDaniel Pineda
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Antonio Carvalho(4 fights)Daniel Pineda(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +133.0|Blue -133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Antonio CarvalhoTargetDaniel Pineda
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Antonio Carvalho edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
