Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gasan Umalatov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Gasan Umalatov has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paulo ThiagoL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Apr 12L
vs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 12W
vs Michel Prazeres · May 13L
KOvs Brandon Thatch · Nov 13L
vs Sean Spencer · Sep 14 Gasan UmalatovL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Cathal Pendred · Oct 14L
vs Viscardi Andrade · Nov 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paulo ThiagoMetricGasan Umalatov
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.28Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-1.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Paulo ThiagoGasan Umalatov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paulo Thiago(9 fights)Gasan Umalatov(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -2.1|Blue +2.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Paulo ThiagoTargetGasan Umalatov
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Gasan Umalatov edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:01
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:54Control
Round 2Paulo Thiago edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control0:53
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:36Control
Round 3Paulo Thiago edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:30Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
