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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Francis Ngannou won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1496
Francis Ngannou
Elo1502
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Francis NgannouvsJairzinho RozenstruikUFC Prediction Result

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 9, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Francis Ngannou won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:20

Model Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Francis Ngannou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jairzinho Rozenstruik at +225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Francis Ngannou has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francis Ngannou
Red Corner
VS
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Blue Corner
-265
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+225
(31%)
1496
Elo
1502
39
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'2"
210.82 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francis NgannouW5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Nov 18
W
KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19
W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19
W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21
W
vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22
latest
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
oldest →
W
KOvs Chris Daukaus · Dec 22
L
SUBvs Jailton Almeida · May 23
W
KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Mar 24
W
vs Tai Tuivasa · Aug 24
L
vs Sergei Pavlovich · Feb 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francis NgannouMetricJairzinho Rozenstruik
2.33
Strikes / min
3.48
2.16
Strikes absorbed / min
2.63
41%
Strike defense
52%
0.76
TDs / 15 min
0.00
71%
Takedown defense
72%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.17evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1592 vs 1553Strikes2.1 vs 3.7Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form0.6 vs 1.0
Francis NgannouJairzinho Rozenstruik

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Francis Ngannou(10 fights)Jairzinho Rozenstruik(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -6.6|Blue +6.6
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +161.0|Blue -161.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francis NgannouTargetJairzinho Rozenstruik

By target zone

5
45% acc · 83%
Head
3
100% acc · 60%
1
50% acc · 17%
Body
0
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 40%

By position

3
33% acc · 50%
Distance
5
100% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
3
75% acc · 50%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Francis Ngannou rounds
0
even
0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik rounds
Round 1Francis Ngannou edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
6 / 13
Sig Strikes
5 / 5
46%
Sig Str %
100%
6 / 13
Total Strikes
5 / 5
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jairzinho Rozenstruik5 / 55 / 50 / 00
1Francis Ngannou6 / 136 / 130 / 00

Francis Ngannou

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach83.0"
Fights14

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15