Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Gunnar Nelson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar Nelson
oldest →W
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 18L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25 Gilbert BurnsL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Belal Muhammad · May 23L
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24L
KOvs Michael Morales · May 25L
KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricGilbert Burns
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.29evenly matched on net striking-0.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Gunnar NelsonGilbert Burns
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +30.9|Blue -30.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +147.0|Blue -147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Gunnar NelsonTargetGilbert Burns
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Gilbert Burns edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:28
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Round 2Gilbert Burns edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control1:58
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:57Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control2:23
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:43Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
