Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago Tavares
oldest →W
SUBvs Justin Salas · Nov 13W
SUBvs Robert Peralta · Aug 14L
KOvs Brian Ortega · Jun 15W
SUBvs Clay Guida · Nov 15L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 16 Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak
oldest →W
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19W
SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago TavaresMetricKhabib Nurmagomedov
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.31Δ 2.66 — meaningful gap+2.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thiago TavaresKhabib Nurmagomedov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Tavares(10 fights)Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -2.5|Blue +2.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +175.0|Blue -175.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thiago TavaresTargetKhabib Nurmagomedov
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds
Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
