Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Derek Brunson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Israel Adesanya has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (54.1%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derek BrunsonL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23 Israel AdesanyaL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23L
vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23L
SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24L
KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derek BrunsonMetricIsrael Adesanya
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Derek BrunsonIsrael Adesanya
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derek Brunson(10 fights)Israel Adesanya(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -10.2|Blue +10.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +160.0|Blue -160.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Derek BrunsonTargetIsrael Adesanya
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Israel Adesanya edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control1:34
Knockdowns0
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
3Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
