Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Eric Spicely threatens submissions; Deron Winn has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Eric Spicely has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Deron Winn
oldest →L
vs Darren Stewart · Oct 19L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 20W
vs Antonio Arroyo · Dec 20L
KOvs Phil Hawes · Jun 22 Eric SpicelyL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Sam Alvey · Jul 16W
SUBvs Thiago Santos · Sep 16W
SUBvs Alessio Di Chirico · Jan 17L
KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Dec 17L
KOvs Darren Stewart · May 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Deron WinnMetricEric Spicely
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.66evenly matched on net striking-2.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Deron WinnEric Spicely
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Deron Winn(5 fights)Eric Spicely(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +120.7|Blue -120.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +49.4|Blue -49.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +49.8|Blue -49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Deron WinnTargetEric Spicely
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Deron Winn edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control0:02
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2Deron Winn edged it
Sig. strikes77
Takedowns0
Control0:48
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Deron Winn edged it
Sig. strikes55
Takedowns0
Control0:28
46Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
