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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kenny Robertson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1358

Elo1490

Kenny RobertsonvsIldemar AlcantaraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida · Saturday, July 5, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kenny Robertson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKenny Robertson: Well-roundedvsIldemar Alcantara: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ildemar Alcantara wins(73.7%)

Actual result: Kenny Robertson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ildemar Alcantara at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ildemar Alcantara has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Ildemar Alcantara has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kenny Robertson

Red Corner

Ildemar Alcantara

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1358

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kenny RobertsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Pierson · Jun 13

SUBvs Thiago Perpetuo · Mar 14

KOvs Sultan Aliev · Jan 15

vs Ben Saunders · Jul 15

vs Roan Carneiro · Sep 16

latest

Ildemar Alcantara

oldest →

vs Leandro Silva · Jun 13

vs Igor Araujo · Oct 13

vs Albert Tumenov · Feb 14

vs Richardson Moreira · Jan 15

vs Kevin Casey · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kenny RobertsonMetricIldemar Alcantara

3.72

Strikes / min

1.93

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

52%

Strike defense

50%

1.37

TDs / 15 min

2.00

57%

Takedown defense

81%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.70Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kenny RobertsonIldemar Alcantara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kenny Robertson(9 fights)Ildemar Alcantara(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -132.4|Blue +132.4

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -36.0|Blue +36.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kenny RobertsonTargetIldemar Alcantara

By target zone

54% acc · 66%

Head

25% acc · 64%

83% acc · 7%

Body

88% acc · 32%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

52% acc · 36%

Distance

27% acc · 68%

82% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 23%

71% acc · 51%

Ground

50% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kenny Robertson rounds

even

Ildemar Alcantara rounds

Round 1Kenny Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control4:27

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Kenny Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns2

Control2:45

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kenny Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:28

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 110

Sig Strikes

22 / 65

64.3%

Sig Str %

43.3%

135 / 195

Total Strikes

25 / 71

3 / 10

TDs

1 / 2

28.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

8:40

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ildemar Alcantara	2 / 3	4 / 8	0 / 1	0
1	Kenny Robertson	28 / 35	58 / 75	1 / 5	0
2	Ildemar Alcantara	9 / 27	9 / 27	0 / 0	0
2	Kenny Robertson	25 / 47	49 / 73	2 / 3	2
3	Ildemar Alcantara	11 / 35	12 / 36	1 / 1	0
3	Kenny Robertson	17 / 28	28 / 47	0 / 2	0

Kenny Robertson

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Ildemar Alcantara

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7