Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Marlon Moraes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Henry Cejudo has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Henry CejudoL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20L
vs Aljamain Sterling · May 23L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24L
vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25 Marlon MoraesL4 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20L
KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21L
KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Henry CejudoMetricMarlon Moraes
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.01Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap-1.16
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Henry CejudoMarlon Moraes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Henry Cejudo(10 fights)Marlon Moraes(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +52.7|Blue -52.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Henry CejudoTargetMarlon Moraes
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Marlon Moraes edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Henry Cejudo edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:00
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Henry Cejudo edged it
Sig. strikes47
Takedowns1
Control2:40
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
