Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chas Skelly won · SUB R2

Elo1495

Elo1494

Chas SkellyvsChris GruetzemacherUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, February 4, 2017Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Chas Skelly won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:01

Style matchupChas Skelly: Submission grapplervsChris Gruetzemacher: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Chas Skelly wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Chas Skelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chas Skelly at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chas Skelly threatens submissions; Chris Gruetzemacher has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Chris Gruetzemacher has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Chas Skelly has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chas Skelly

Red Corner

Chris Gruetzemacher

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1495

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chas SkellyW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Maximo Blanco · Sep 16

KOvs Jason Knight · May 17

vs Bobby Moffett · Nov 18

vs Jordan Griffin · Sep 19

KOvs Mark Striegl · Feb 22

latest

Chris Gruetzemacher

oldest →

SUBvs Davi Ramos · Dec 17

KOvs Joe Lauzon · Apr 18

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 20

vs Rafa Garcia · Jul 21

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Dec 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chas SkellyMetricChris Gruetzemacher

2.01

Strikes / min

6.18

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

4.96

49%

Strike defense

52%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

0.21

39%

Takedown defense

65%

2.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.20Δ 2.42 — meaningful gap+1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chas SkellyChris Gruetzemacher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chas Skelly(10 fights)Chris Gruetzemacher(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -281.0|Blue +281.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chas SkellyTargetChris Gruetzemacher

By target zone

40% acc · 95%

Head

52% acc · 54%

50% acc · 5%

Body

83% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

38% acc · 71%

Distance

52% acc · 54%

50% acc · 19%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

50% acc · 10%

Ground

92% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chas Skelly rounds

even

Chris Gruetzemacher rounds

Round 1Chas Skelly edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control3:38

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:01

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 52

Sig Strikes

28 / 43

40%

Sig Str %

67%

29 / 60

Total Strikes

65 / 83

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:39

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Gruetzemacher	12 / 16	41 / 47	0 / 0	0
1	Chas Skelly	12 / 31	20 / 39	1 / 2	0
2	Chris Gruetzemacher	16 / 27	24 / 36	0 / 0	0
2	Chas Skelly	9 / 21	9 / 21	1 / 1	1

Chas Skelly

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Chris Gruetzemacher

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7