Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Mitrione is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Philip De Fries has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Philip De Fries threatens submissions; Matt Mitrione has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Matt Mitrione has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Philip De Fries has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt MitrioneL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14W
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15L
KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16 Philip De Fries
oldest →W
vs Rob Broughton · Nov 11L
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Feb 12W
SUBvs Oli Thompson · Aug 12L
KOvs Todd Duffee · Dec 12 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt MitrioneMetricPhilip De Fries
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.76Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap-0.70
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matt MitrionePhilip De Fries
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Mitrione(10 fights)Philip De Fries(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +4.0|Blue -4.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matt MitrioneTargetPhilip De Fries
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Matt Mitrione edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:03
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
