Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- James Vick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Justin Gaethje is a KO finisher (64% of wins). James Vick has lost 80% of fights by KO.
- Justin Gaethje has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- James Vick has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin GaethjeW3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26W
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26 James VickL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Francisco Trinaldo · Feb 18L
KOvs Dan Hooker · Jul 19L
KOvs Niko Price · Oct 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin GaethjeMetricJames Vick
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.57Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.82
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Justin GaethjeJames Vick
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Gaethje(10 fights)James Vick(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +163.7|Blue -163.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.7|Blue -2.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -55.0|Blue +55.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Justin GaethjeTargetJames Vick
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
