Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Augusto Sakai has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Alistair Overeem has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alistair Overeem
oldest →W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 18W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21 Augusto Sakai
oldest →W
vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 20L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Jun 21L
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 21L
KOvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 22W
vs Don'Tale Mayes · Feb 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alistair OvereemMetricAugusto Sakai
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.23evenly matched on net striking+0.77
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alistair OvereemAugusto Sakai
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Augusto Sakai(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -3.0|Blue +3.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alistair OvereemTargetAugusto Sakai
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Augusto Sakai edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:45Control
Round 2Augusto Sakai edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control1:12
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:58Control
Round 3Augusto Sakai edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control1:44
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:38Control
Round 4Alistair Overeem edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns1
Control2:18
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 5Alistair Overeem edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control0:15
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
