Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julia PolastriL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Josefine Knutsson · Jun 24W
vs Cory McKenna · Oct 24L
vs Loopy Godinez · Mar 25L
DECvs Talita Alencar · Apr 26 Karolina KowalkiewiczL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Silvana Gomez Juarez · Nov 22W
vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23W
vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23L
vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24L
vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julia PolastriMetricKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.04Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap-0.23
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Julia PolastriKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julia Polastri(5 fights)Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +7.6|Blue -7.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -2.1|Blue +2.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -140.0|Blue +140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Julia PolastriTargetKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds
Round 1Julia Polastri edged it
Sig. strikes53
Takedowns0
Control0:46
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Julia Polastri edged it
Sig. strikes46
Takedowns0
Control0:00
30Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:31Control
Round 3Julia Polastri edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
