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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ateba Gautier won · U-DEC R3

Elo1601

Elo1458

Ateba GautiervsAndrey PulyaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Saturday, January 24, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ateba Gautier won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAteba Gautier: StrikervsAndrey Pulyaev: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Ateba Gautier wins(72.8%)

Actual result: Ateba Gautier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ateba Gautier at -1000 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ateba Gautier enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Ateba Gautier has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ateba Gautier (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Ateba Gautier

Red Corner

Andrey Pulyaev

Blue Corner

-1000

(91%)

Vegas Odds

+660

(13%)

1601

Elo

1458

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'4"

205.74 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ateba GautierW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jose Daniel Medina · Mar 25

KOvs Robert Valentin · Jul 25

KOvs Tre'ston Vines · Oct 25

KOvs Ozzy Diaz · May 26

latest

Andrey Pulyaev

oldest →

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Mar 25

KOvs Nick Klein · Aug 25

SUBvs Nursulton Ruziboev · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ateba GautierMetricAndrey Pulyaev

4.32

Strikes / min

3.84

2.60

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

54%

Strike defense

55%

0.41

TDs / 15 min

0.29

93%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.72Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ateba GautierAndrey Pulyaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ateba Gautier(5 fights)Andrey Pulyaev(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +142.5|Blue -142.5

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ateba GautierTargetAndrey Pulyaev

By target zone

24% acc · 71%

Head

41% acc · 58%

69% acc · 26%

Body

59% acc · 32%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

75% acc · 10%

By position

29% acc · 88%

Distance

47% acc · 97%

44% acc · 12%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ateba Gautier rounds

even

Andrey Pulyaev rounds

Round 1Andrey Pulyaev edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Andrey Pulyaev edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 112

Sig Strikes

59 / 123

30.7%

Sig Str %

47.7%

34 / 112

Total Strikes

59 / 123

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andrey Pulyaev	19 / 37	19 / 37	0 / 0
1	Ateba Gautier	8 / 42	8 / 42	0 / 0
2	Andrey Pulyaev	24 / 46	24 / 46	0 / 0
2	Ateba Gautier	15 / 41	15 / 41	0 / 0
3	Andrey Pulyaev	16 / 40	16 / 40	0 / 0
3	Ateba Gautier	11 / 29	11 / 29	0 / 0

Ateba Gautier

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights5

Andrey Pulyaev

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4