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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Demetrious Johnson won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1355

Demetrious JohnsonvsChris CariasoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · Saturday, September 27, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Demetrious Johnson won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:29

Style matchupDemetrious Johnson: WrestlervsChris Cariaso: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Demetrious Johnson wins(78.9%)

Actual result: Demetrious Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Demetrious Johnson at -1450 American odds

+$7 profit

$107 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Demetrious Johnson

Red Corner

Chris Cariaso

Blue Corner

-1450

(94%)

Vegas Odds

+1150

(8%)

1491

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'3"

Height

5'3"

167.64 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Demetrious Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Apr 16

vs Tim Elliott · Dec 16

SUBvs Wilson Reis · Apr 17

SUBvs Ray Borg · Oct 17

vs Henry Cejudo · Aug 18

latest

Chris CariasoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Iliarde Santos · Oct 13

vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14

vs Louis Smolka · May 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Demetrious JohnsonMetricChris Cariaso

3.43

Strikes / min

3.35

1.66

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

67%

Strike defense

61%

3.35

TDs / 15 min

1.11

65%

Takedown defense

57%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77evenly matched on net striking+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Demetrious JohnsonChris Cariaso

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Demetrious Johnson(10 fights)Chris Cariaso(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.7|Blue -135.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Demetrious JohnsonTargetChris Cariaso

By target zone

50% acc · 44%

Head

5% acc · 17%

87% acc · 48%

Body

67% acc · 33%

50% acc · 7%

Leg

60% acc · 50%

By position

39% acc · 26%

Distance

16% acc · 67%

91% acc · 37%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

71% acc · 37%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Demetrious Johnson rounds

even

Chris Cariaso rounds

Round 1Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control2:52

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Demetrious Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:50

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 43

Sig Strikes

6 / 27

62%

Sig Str %

19.5%

47 / 66

Total Strikes

13 / 35

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:42

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Cariaso	5 / 21	10 / 26	0 / 1	0
1	Demetrious Johnson	19 / 30	30 / 42	1 / 1	0
2	Chris Cariaso	1 / 6	3 / 9	0 / 0	0
2	Demetrious Johnson	8 / 13	17 / 24	0 / 0	2

Demetrious Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Chris Cariaso

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13