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FIGHTDETECTIVE
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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Islam Makhachev won · Decision R5
Elo1564
Islam Makhachev editorial illustration
Elo1523
Ian Machado Garry editorial illustration

Islam MakhachevvsIan Machado GarryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Saturday, August 15, 2026Philadelphia, USA

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

Decision · Round 5 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Islam Makhachev

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Islam Makhachev at -367 American odds · hypothetical only

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsIan Machado Garry: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Ian Machado Garry has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Islam Makhachev
Red Corner
VS
Ian Machado Garry
Blue Corner
-364
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+277
(27%)
1564
Elo
1523
34
Age
28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'3"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23
W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24
W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25
W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25
latest
Ian Machado GarryW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Geoff Neal · Feb 24
W
vs Michael Page · Jun 24
L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24
W
vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25
W
vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Islam MakhachevMetricIan Machado Garry
2.45
Strikes / min
4.78
1.45
Strikes absorbed / min
2.86
61%
Strike defense
52%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
0.92
91%
Takedown defense
80%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00evenly matched on net striking+1.92
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901513153515581580← oldermost recent →
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Ian Machado Garry(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +40.5|Blue -40.5
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Islam MakhachevTargetIan Machado Garry

By target zone

9
29% acc · 41%
Head
7
18% acc · 24%
3
100% acc · 14%
Body
16
94% acc · 55%
10
100% acc · 45%
Leg
6
75% acc · 21%

By position

15
42% acc · 68%
Distance
22
39% acc · 76%
6
86% acc · 27%
Clinch
7
88% acc · 24%
1
100% acc · 5%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Islam Makhachev rounds
1
even
0
Ian Machado Garry rounds
Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control3:38
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control2:19
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control0:16
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 4Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns2
Control3:05
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Round 5Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns2
Control3:12
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
22 / 44
Sig Strikes
29 / 65
43%
Sig Str %
41.8%
78 / 114
Total Strikes
89 / 141
7 / 15
TDs
0 / 0
62%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
12:30
Ctrl Time
0:34

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ian Machado Garry0 / 210 / 170 / 00
1Islam Makhachev3 / 523 / 251 / 50
2Ian Machado Garry6 / 187 / 200 / 00
2Islam Makhachev11 / 2024 / 351 / 10
3Ian Machado Garry9 / 2512 / 280 / 00
3Islam Makhachev5 / 105 / 101 / 20
4Ian Machado Garry7 / 1141 / 490 / 00
4Islam Makhachev3 / 67 / 102 / 50
5Islam Makhachev0 / 319 / 342 / 20
5Ian Machado Garry7 / 919 / 270 / 00

The Pick

Vegas favorite
Islam Makhachev
Odds
-367

Market-implied probability

Islam Makhachev 75%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Islam Makhachev (model pick · research)$127
Ian Machado Garry$384

75% market-implied · model 57% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC at -367 · never rewritten

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights19

Ian Machado Garry

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9