Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Krzysztof Jotko has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Krzysztof Jotko (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thales Leites
oldest →W
SUBvs Chris Camozzi · Aug 16L
vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17L
KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 18W
vs Hector Lombard · Sep 18 Krzysztof Jotko
oldest →L
vs Sean Strickland · May 21W
vs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 21W
vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 22L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Oct 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thales LeitesMetricKrzysztof Jotko
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.86Δ 1.61 — meaningful gap+0.75
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thales LeitesKrzysztof Jotko
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thales Leites(10 fights)Krzysztof Jotko(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -4.8|Blue +4.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thales LeitesTargetKrzysztof Jotko
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control1:56
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:39Control
Round 2Krzysztof Jotko edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:35
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:56Control
Round 3Krzysztof Jotko edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:18
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:29Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
