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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Morales won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1505

Elo1551

Neil MagnyvsMichael MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Saturday, August 24, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael Morales won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:39

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsMichael Morales: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Michael Morales wins(73.2%)

Actual result: Michael Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Morales at -900 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Morales enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Michael Morales has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Michael Morales

Blue Corner

+600

(14%)

Vegas Odds

-900

(90%)

1505

Elo

1551

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

203.2 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Mike Malott · Jan 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Michael MoralesW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Adam Fugitt · Jul 22

vs Max Griffin · Jul 23

vs Jake Matthews · Nov 23

KOvs Gilbert Burns · May 25

KOvs Sean Brady · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricMichael Morales

3.40

Strikes / min

5.68

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

51%

Strike defense

53%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

1.04

55%

Takedown defense

89%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap+2.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyMichael Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Michael Morales(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -45.2|Blue +45.2

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetMichael Morales

By target zone

14% acc · 20%

Head

86% acc · 88%

100% acc · 40%

Body

100% acc · 40%

Leg

80% acc · 12%

By position

38% acc · 60%

Distance

80% acc · 12%

50% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

Ground

86% acc · 88%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Michael Morales rounds

Round 1Michael Morales edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control2:05

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 11

Sig Strikes

34 / 40

45%

Sig Str %

85%

13 / 19

Total Strikes

39 / 45

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:05

Ctrl Time

1:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Morales	34 / 40	39 / 45	0 / 0	0
1	Neil Magny	5 / 11	13 / 19	0 / 2	0

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Michael Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7