Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ismail Naurdiev has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ismail Naurdiev has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chance Rencountre (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ismail Naurdiev
oldest →W
vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Sep 19L
vs JunYong Park · Jun 25W
KOvs Ryan Loder · Nov 25 Chance Rencountre
oldest →L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 18W
SUBvs Kyle Stewart · Jan 19L
KOvs Lyman Good · Nov 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ismail NaurdievMetricChance Rencountre
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.91Δ 4.43 — meaningful gap-2.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ismail NaurdievChance Rencountre
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ismail Naurdiev(7 fights)Chance Rencountre(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +20.9|Blue -20.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -35.0|Blue +35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ismail NaurdievTargetChance Rencountre
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Chance Rencountre rounds
Round 1Ismail Naurdiev edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control0:17
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:01Control
Round 2Chance Rencountre edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
0Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:55Control
Round 3Ismail Naurdiev edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control0:05
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:18Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
