Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alan Belcher is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Jason MacDonald has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Alan Belcher has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alan Belcher has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Jason MacDonald has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alan BelcherL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Patrick Cote · May 10W
KOvs Rousimar Palhares · May 12L
vs Yushin Okami · Dec 12L
vs Michael Bisping · Apr 13 Jason MacDonald
oldest →L
KOvs John Salter · May 10W
SUBvs Ryan Jensen · Apr 11L
KOvs Tom Lawlor · May 12 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alan BelcherMetricJason MacDonald
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.40evenly matched on net striking-1.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alan BelcherJason MacDonald
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alan Belcher(5 fights)Jason MacDonald(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +357.0|Blue -357.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alan BelcherTargetJason MacDonald
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Alan Belcher edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control2:58
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:25Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
