← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

5 Rounds

Brendan Allen won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1525

Reinier de Ridder editorial illustration

Elo1550

Reinier de RiddervsBrendan AllenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · Saturday, October 18, 2025Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Brendan Allen won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 5:00

Style matchupReinier de Ridder: WrestlervsBrendan Allen: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Allen at +184 American odds

+$184 profit

$284 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendan Allen has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Reinier de Ridder (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Reinier de Ridder

Red Corner

Brendan Allen

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+184

(35%)

1525

Elo

1550

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

198.12 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Reinier de Ridder

oldest →

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Nov 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jan 25

KOvs Bo Nickal · May 25

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 25

vs Caio Borralho · Mar 26

latest

Brendan AllenW2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Apr 24

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Reinier de RidderMetricBrendan Allen

2.47

Strikes / min

3.59

2.36

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

46%

Strike defense

47%

2.56

TDs / 15 min

1.56

40%

Takedown defense

56%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.11evenly matched on net striking-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Reinier de RidderBrendan Allen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Reinier de Ridder(6 fights)Brendan Allen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.4|Blue +25.4

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Reinier de RidderTargetBrendan Allen

By target zone

80% acc · 44%

Head

58% acc · 86%

63% acc · 56%

Body

75% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

60% acc · 67%

Distance

13% acc · 5%

100% acc · 22%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

100% acc · 11%

Ground

70% acc · 86%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Reinier de Ridder rounds

even

Brendan Allen rounds

Round 1Reinier de Ridder edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control4:04

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:48

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:45Control

Round 3Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control1:13

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:26Control

Round 4Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 13

Sig Strikes

22 / 37

52%

Sig Str %

65.8%

61 / 72

Total Strikes

97 / 134

3 / 7

TDs

1 / 1

44.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:05

Ctrl Time

11:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Reinier de Ridder	3 / 4	40 / 47	1 / 3	0
1	Brendan Allen	2 / 2	6 / 9	0 / 0	0
2	Reinier de Ridder	5 / 6	10 / 12	1 / 2	0
2	Brendan Allen	12 / 18	27 / 36	0 / 0	0
3	Brendan Allen	4 / 10	27 / 44	0 / 0	0
3	Reinier de Ridder	1 / 2	4 / 5	1 / 2	1
4	Reinier de Ridder	0 / 1	7 / 8	0 / 0	0
4	Brendan Allen	4 / 7	37 / 45	1 / 1	1

Reinier de Ridder

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19