Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22 Jeremy StephensL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19L
KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20L
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21L
SUBvs King Green · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Donald CerroneMetricJeremy Stephens
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.12
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Donald CerroneJeremy Stephens
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Donald Cerrone(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -43.9|Blue +43.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -83.0|Blue +83.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Donald CerroneTargetJeremy Stephens
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns1
Control0:27
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns0
Control0:03
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
