Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Vaughan Lee has 24pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paddy Holohan
oldest →W
SUBvs Joshua Sampo · Jul 14L
vs Chris Kelades · Oct 14W
vs Shane Howell · Jan 15L
SUBvs Louis Smolka · Oct 15 Vaughan Lee
oldest →L
SUBvs TJ Dillashaw · Jul 12W
vs Motonobu Tezuka · Feb 13L
SUBvs Raphael Assuncao · Jun 13L
KOvs Iuri Alcantara · May 14 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paddy HolohanMetricVaughan Lee
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.68Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap+1.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Paddy HolohanVaughan Lee
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paddy Holohan(5 fights)Vaughan Lee(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +135.5|Blue -135.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -232.0|Blue +232.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Paddy HolohanTargetVaughan Lee
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control4:17
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Paddy Holohan edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control3:24
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:11Control
Round 3Paddy Holohan edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control0:13
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
