Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19W
DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21 Jorge MasvidalL4 streak
oldest →L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21L
vs Colby Covington · Mar 22L
vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Demian MaiaMetricJorge Masvidal
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.27Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap+1.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Demian MaiaJorge Masvidal
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Demian Maia(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -53.9|Blue +53.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +154.0|Blue -154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Demian MaiaTargetJorge Masvidal
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Demian Maia edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns3
Control3:50
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:20Control
Round 2Demian Maia edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control2:37
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:34Control
Round 3Demian Maia edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control2:27
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
