Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Ricky Simon has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ricky Simon
oldest →L
vs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 24W
KOvs Javid Basharat · Feb 25W
vs Cameron Smotherman · Jun 25L
vs Raoni Barcelos · Nov 25D
vs Adrian Yanez · Mar 26 Brian KelleherL4 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22L
SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23L
SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ricky SimonMetricBrian Kelleher
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.87evenly matched on net striking-1.28
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ricky SimonBrian Kelleher
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ricky Simon(10 fights)Brian Kelleher(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +11.5|Blue -11.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -137.0|Blue +137.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ricky SimonTargetBrian Kelleher
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ricky Simon edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns3
Control3:16
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2Ricky Simon edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns2
Control1:27
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Ricky Simon edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control3:31
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
