Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Donald Cerrone has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Vagner RochaL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Cody McKenzie · Sep 11L
KOvs Jonathan Brookins · Feb 12L
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Nov 14 Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Vagner RochaMetricDonald Cerrone
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.86Δ 1.79 — meaningful gap-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Vagner RochaDonald Cerrone
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Vagner Rocha(4 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -74.9|Blue +74.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Vagner RochaTargetDonald Cerrone
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control0:26
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:30
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:26Control
Round 3Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
40Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
