Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sergio Pettis has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Sergio Pettis has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matt Hobar (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sergio Pettis
oldest →L
vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 17W
vs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 18L
vs Jussier Formiga · Oct 18 Matt Hobar
oldest →L
KOvs Pedro Munhoz · May 14W
vs Aaron Phillips · Aug 14 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sergio PettisMetricMatt Hobar
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.97Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap-1.04
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Sergio PettisMatt Hobar
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sergio Pettis(10 fights)Matt Hobar(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.8|Blue -2.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +77.0|Blue -77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Sergio PettisTargetMatt Hobar
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Matt Hobar edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns0
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:42Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Sergio Pettis edged it
Sig. strikes42
Takedowns0
Control1:24
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:19Control
Round 3Sergio Pettis edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:09
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
