Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Israel Adesanya has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Israel Adesanya has 76pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rob Wilkinson
oldest →L
KOvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Sep 17 Israel AdesanyaL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23L
vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23L
SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24L
KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rob WilkinsonMetricIsrael Adesanya
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.92Δ 3.73 — meaningful gap+0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rob WilkinsonIsrael Adesanya
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rob Wilkinson(2 fights)Israel Adesanya(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -100.6|Blue +100.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rob WilkinsonTargetIsrael Adesanya
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rob Wilkinson edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns2
Control3:22
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Israel Adesanya edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control0:45
Knockdowns0
42Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns
