Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
- Curtis Blaydes has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Derrick Lewis has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Curtis Blaydes
oldest →L
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23W
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24W
vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25L
DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26 Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Curtis BlaydesMetricDerrick Lewis
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.42Δ 1.53 — meaningful gap-0.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Curtis BlaydesDerrick Lewis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Derrick Lewis(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Curtis BlaydesTargetDerrick Lewis
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Curtis Blaydes edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:05
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Derrick Lewis edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:10
Knockdowns0
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
