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Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
TJ Dillashaw won · KO/TKO R5
Elo1378
Renan Barao
Elo1496

Renan BaraovsTJ DillashawUFC Prediction Result

UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · Saturday, May 24, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

TJ Dillashaw won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 2:26

Style matchupRenan Barao: Well-roundedvsTJ Dillashaw: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(70.4%)

Actual result: TJ Dillashaw wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renan Barao at -910 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Renan Barao
Red Corner
VS
TJ Dillashaw
Blue Corner
-910
(90%)
Vegas Odds
+710
(12%)
1378
Elo
1496
39
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
177.8 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renan BaraoL5 streak
oldest →
L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17
L
vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18
L
vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18
L
KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19
L
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19
latest
TJ Dillashaw
oldest →
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21
L
KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Oct 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renan BaraoMetricTJ Dillashaw
3.78
Strikes / min
5.09
3.90
Strikes absorbed / min
3.47
57%
Strike defense
62%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
1.56
91%
Takedown defense
77%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.12Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1605 vs 1547Strikes50.4 vs 41.0Takedowns1.4 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.29 vs 1.29Form1.0 vs 0.5
Renan BaraoTJ Dillashaw

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Renan Barao(10 fights)TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -117.7|Blue +117.7
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -17.0|Blue +17.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renan BaraoTargetTJ Dillashaw

By target zone

42
19% acc · 66%
Head
99
38% acc · 71%
13
38% acc · 20%
Body
17
81% acc · 12%
9
69% acc · 14%
Leg
24
86% acc · 17%

By position

61
23% acc · 95%
Distance
120
43% acc · 86%
3
100% acc · 5%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 1%
0
Ground
19
63% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Renan Barao rounds
0
even
5
TJ Dillashaw rounds
Round 1TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:54Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 3TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:25Control
Round 4TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:11Control
Round 5TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
64 / 273
Sig Strikes
140 / 309
22%
Sig Str %
45.8%
68 / 277
Total Strikes
169 / 344
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 3
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
3:38

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1TJ Dillashaw19 / 5727 / 650 / 02
1Renan Barao7 / 457 / 450 / 00
2TJ Dillashaw28 / 7328 / 730 / 10
2Renan Barao20 / 7920 / 790 / 00
3TJ Dillashaw37 / 7539 / 780 / 10
3Renan Barao19 / 7319 / 730 / 00
4Renan Barao13 / 4517 / 490 / 00
4TJ Dillashaw31 / 6250 / 860 / 10
5TJ Dillashaw25 / 4225 / 420 / 00
5Renan Barao5 / 315 / 310 / 00

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17

TJ Dillashaw

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18