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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Reza Madadi won · SUB R3

Elo1360

Elo1502

Reza MadadivsMichael JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · Saturday, April 6, 2013Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Reza Madadi won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:33

Style matchupReza Madadi: WrestlervsMichael Johnson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Reza Madadi wins(66.9%)

Actual result: Reza Madadi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Reza Madadi at +260 American odds

+$260 profit

$360 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Reza Madadi threatens submissions; Michael Johnson has lost 31% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Reza Madadi

Red Corner

Michael Johnson

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-290

(74%)

1360

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Reza MadadiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cristiano Marcello · Oct 12

vs Norman Parke · Oct 15

KOvs Yan Cabral · May 16

vs Joe Duffy · Mar 17

vs Joaquim Silva · May 17

latest

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Reza MadadiMetricMichael Johnson

2.51

Strikes / min

4.27

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

66%

Strike defense

58%

3.17

TDs / 15 min

0.57

89%

Takedown defense

81%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.80Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Reza MadadiMichael Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Reza Madadi(7 fights)Michael Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -142.0|Blue +142.0

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Reza MadadiTargetMichael Johnson

By target zone

75% acc · 97%

Head

25% acc · 65%

50% acc · 3%

Body

60% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

22% acc · 6%

Distance

22% acc · 50%

Clinch

71% acc · 25%

86% acc · 94%

Ground

45% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Reza Madadi rounds

even

Michael Johnson rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:51

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:49Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Reza Madadi edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns2

Control3:56

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Reza Madadi edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:20

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 46

Sig Strikes

20 / 64

65%

Sig Str %

18%

79 / 98

Total Strikes

21 / 66

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

72%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:07

Ctrl Time

1:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Johnson	18 / 50	19 / 52	0 / 0	0
1	Reza Madadi	5 / 9	14 / 18	1 / 2	1
2	Michael Johnson	2 / 11	2 / 11	0 / 0	0
2	Reza Madadi	25 / 30	53 / 64	2 / 3	0
3	Michael Johnson	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 0	0
3	Reza Madadi	4 / 7	12 / 16	1 / 1	1

Reza Madadi

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32