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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Modestas Bukauskas won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1538
Elo1436

Modestas BukauskasvsRafael CerqueiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Saturday, February 22, 2025Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Modestas Bukauskas won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:12

Model Prediction: Modestas Bukauskas wins(73.9%)

Actual result: Modestas Bukauskas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Modestas Bukauskas at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rafael Cerqueira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Modestas Bukauskas has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Modestas Bukauskas has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Modestas Bukauskas
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Cerqueira
Blue Corner
-275
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+225
(31%)
1538
Elo
1436
32
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Modestas Bukauskas
oldest →
W
SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 24
W
vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25
W
KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25
L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26
W
DECvs Christian Edwards · May 26
latest
Rafael CerqueiraL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Ibo Aslan · Oct 24
L
vs Julius Walker · Aug 25
L
SUBvs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Modestas BukauskasMetricRafael Cerqueira
3.24
Strikes / min
1.56
4.05
Strikes absorbed / min
5.05
50%
Strike defense
36%
0.26
TDs / 15 min
0.00
79%
Takedown defense
36%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.81Δ 2.68 — meaningful gap-3.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1505 vs 1485Strikes3.2 vs 1.6Takedowns0.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.00Form0.5 vs -1.0
Modestas BukauskasRafael Cerqueira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14201453148515181550← oldermost recent →
Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)Rafael Cerqueira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +102.4|Blue -102.4
Recent Form
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Modestas BukauskasTargetRafael Cerqueira

By target zone

11
31% acc · 69%
Head
4
25% acc · 44%
3
100% acc · 19%
Body
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 13%
Leg
5
100% acc · 56%

By position

16
40% acc · 100%
Distance
9
41% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Modestas Bukauskas rounds
0
even
0
Rafael Cerqueira rounds
Round 1Modestas Bukauskas edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
16 / 41
Sig Strikes
9 / 22
39%
Sig Str %
40%
16 / 41
Total Strikes
9 / 22
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rafael Cerqueira9 / 229 / 220 / 00
1Modestas Bukauskas16 / 4116 / 410 / 00

Modestas Bukauskas

StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12

Rafael Cerqueira

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4