Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Felice Herrig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Alexa Grasso has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Felice Herrig has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexa Grasso
oldest →W
vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22W
SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24L
vs Natalia Silva · May 25W
KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26 Felice HerrigL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Cortney Casey · Dec 17L
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Apr 18L
vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 18L
SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Aug 20L
SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Jun 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexa GrassoMetricFelice Herrig
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.40Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap-1.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alexa GrassoFelice Herrig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexa Grasso(10 fights)Felice Herrig(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +86.0|Blue -86.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -105.0|Blue +105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alexa GrassoTargetFelice Herrig
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2Alexa Grasso edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns0
Control0:03
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 3Alexa Grasso edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:11
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:20Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
