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Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Irene Aldana won · U-DEC R3
Elo1499
Irene Aldana
Elo1493

Irene AldanavsVanessa MeloUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Saturday, September 21, 2019Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Irene Aldana won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupIrene Aldana: Pressure fightervsVanessa Melo: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Irene Aldana wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Irene Aldana wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Irene Aldana at -525 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Irene Aldana
Red Corner
VS
Vanessa Melo
Blue Corner
-525
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+415
(19%)
1499
Elo
1493
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'5"
172.72 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Irene Aldana
oldest →
W
KOvs Yana Kunitskaya · Jul 21
W
KOvs Macy Chiasson · Sep 22
L
vs Amanda Nunes · Jun 23
W
vs Karol Rosa · Dec 23
L
vs Norma Dumont · Sep 24
latest
Vanessa Melo
oldest →
L
vs Tracy Cortez · Nov 19
L
vs Karol Rosa · Jul 20
W
vs Sarah Moras · Jan 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Irene AldanaMetricVanessa Melo
5.19
Strikes / min
3.48
6.64
Strikes absorbed / min
6.13
56%
Strike defense
59%
0.15
TDs / 15 min
0.00
77%
Takedown defense
71%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.45Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-2.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1503 vs 1500Strikes6.2 vs 3.6Takedowns0.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs 0.0
Irene AldanaVanessa Melo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Irene Aldana(10 fights)Vanessa Melo(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +6.1|Blue -6.1
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -45.9|Blue +45.9
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Irene AldanaTargetVanessa Melo

By target zone

79
29% acc · 63%
Head
48
23% acc · 71%
21
62% acc · 17%
Body
9
32% acc · 13%
25
89% acc · 20%
Leg
11
73% acc · 16%

By position

124
37% acc · 99%
Distance
68
27% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 1%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Irene Aldana rounds
0
even
0
Vanessa Melo rounds
Round 1Irene Aldana edged it
Sig. strikes45
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Irene Aldana edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Irene Aldana edged it
Sig. strikes44
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
125 / 333
Sig Strikes
68 / 250
37%
Sig Str %
27%
127 / 335
Total Strikes
68 / 250
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Vanessa Melo16 / 8616 / 860 / 00
1Irene Aldana45 / 10845 / 1080 / 00
2Vanessa Melo27 / 8427 / 840 / 10
2Irene Aldana36 / 10236 / 1020 / 00
3Vanessa Melo25 / 8025 / 800 / 00
3Irene Aldana44 / 12346 / 1250 / 00

Irene Aldana

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights14

Vanessa Melo

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights4