Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Thiago Moises enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Trey Ogden has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago MoisesL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 23W
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24L
KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25L
DECvs Gauge Young · Apr 26 Trey OgdenW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Jordan Leavitt · Apr 22W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 22L
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 23W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 24W
vs Loik Radzhabov · Jul 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago MoisesMetricTrey Ogden
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.88Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-0.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thiago MoisesTrey Ogden
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Moises(10 fights)Trey Ogden(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -18.9|Blue +18.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thiago MoisesTargetTrey Ogden
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Trey Ogden edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
36Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Thiago Moises edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control3:23
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Thiago Moises edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control4:07
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:11Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
