Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors John Castaneda (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Castaneda
oldest →L
KOvs Daniel Santos · Oct 22W
vs Muin Gafurov · Jun 23W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 23L
vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 25D
DECvs Mark Vologdin · Apr 26 Daniel Marcos
oldest →W
KOvs Saimon Oliveira · Jan 23W
vs Adrian Yanez · Dec 24L
vs Montel Jackson · May 25W
SUBvs Miles Johns · Nov 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John CastanedaMetricDaniel Marcos
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.12Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap+1.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
John CastanedaDaniel Marcos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Castaneda(9 fights)Daniel Marcos(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -31.2|Blue +31.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -112.0|Blue +112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
John CastanedaTargetDaniel Marcos
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Daniel Marcos edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Daniel Marcos edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control1:53
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:37Control
Round 3Daniel Marcos edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:19
Knockdowns0
44Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
