Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Arman Tsarukyan has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Joel Alvarez has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Arman TsarukyanW5 streak
oldest →W
vs Damir Ismagulov · Dec 22W
KOvs Joaquim Silva · Jun 23W
KOvs Beneil Dariush · Dec 23W
vs Charles Oliveira · Apr 24W
SUBvs Dan Hooker · Nov 25 Joel Alvarez
oldest →W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Arman TsarukyanMetricJoel Alvarez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+2.05evenly matched on net striking+1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Arman TsarukyanJoel Alvarez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Arman Tsarukyan(10 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +17.2|Blue -17.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Arman TsarukyanTargetJoel Alvarez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Arman Tsarukyan edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control4:22
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Arman Tsarukyan edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control1:46
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
