Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Gutierrez has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Chris Gutierrez has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Ryan MacDonald (52.9%).
- Ryan MacDonald has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ryan MacDonald
oldest →L
KOvs Louis Smolka · Sep 19 Chris Gutierrez
oldest →W
vs Alatengheili · Oct 23W
vs John Castaneda · Apr 25L
vs Farid Basharat · Oct 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ryan MacDonaldMetricChris Gutierrez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-4.21Δ 5.96 — meaningful gap+1.75
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ryan MacDonaldChris Gutierrez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ryan MacDonald(2 fights)Chris Gutierrez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -131.5|Blue +131.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ryan MacDonaldTargetChris Gutierrez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chris Gutierrez edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Chris Gutierrez edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:07
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
Round 3Chris Gutierrez edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:40
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
