Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Gravely is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Anthony Birchak has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Anthony Birchak has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony GravelyL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Nate Maness · Sep 21W
vs Saimon Oliveira · Jan 22W
KOvs Johnny Munoz · Jun 22L
vs Javid Basharat · Sep 22L
vs Victor Henry · Mar 23 Anthony Birchak
oldest →L
SUBvs Ian Entwistle · Dec 14L
KOvs Thomas Almeida · Nov 15W
vs Dileno Lopes · Jul 16L
SUBvs Gustavo Lopez · Nov 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony GravelyMetricAnthony Birchak
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.65evenly matched on net striking+0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tony GravelyAnthony Birchak
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Gravely(8 fights)Anthony Birchak(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +56.2|Blue -56.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tony GravelyTargetAnthony Birchak
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tony Gravely edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns3
Control3:20
Knockdowns1
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:27Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Tony Gravely edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control1:14
Knockdowns1
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
