Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Phil Hawes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Phil Hawes has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Phil Hawes has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Phil HawesL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Kyle Daukaus · May 21L
KOvs Chris Curtis · Nov 21L
KOvs Roman Dolidze · Oct 22L
KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · May 23L
KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jan 24 Deron Winn
oldest →W
vs Eric Spicely · Jun 19L
vs Darren Stewart · Oct 19L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 20W
vs Antonio Arroyo · Dec 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Phil HawesMetricDeron Winn
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.61Δ 3.27 — meaningful gap-1.66
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Phil HawesDeron Winn
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Phil Hawes(7 fights)Deron Winn(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -4.0|Blue +4.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -322.0|Blue +322.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Phil HawesTargetDeron Winn
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Phil Hawes edged it
Sig. strikes55
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Phil Hawes edged it
Sig. strikes63
Takedowns1
Control0:43
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
